Since the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) bottomed out in March 2020, investors have been treated to historic gains. Information technology took less than 17 months for the widely followed index to double from its closing depression during the pandemic. Further, the South&P 500 gained 27% last year, which is well over double its average annual total render of 11%, including dividends, since 1980.

Only if history has demonstrated annihilation, it's that volatility, crashes, and corrections are a normal part of the investing bicycle, and the price of admission to what'due south arguably the greatest wealth creator on the planet. In 2022, we may well witness a stock market crash, and one of the following 10 factors could exist the catalyst that causes it.

A twenty dollar paper airplane that's crashed and crumpled into a financial newspaper.

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1. The spread of new COVID-19 variants

Arguably the most glaring concern for Wall Street continues to be the coronavirus and its numerous variants. The unpredictability of the spread and virulence of new COVID-19 strains ways a return to normal is still potentially a ways off. With every country seemingly having its own arroyo to tackling the pandemic, supply chain issues and workflow disruptions could remain commonplace throughout the year.

Wall Street likes certainty, and COVID-19 has ensured that's a practical impossibility.

2. Historically loftier aggrandizement

In a growing economy, moderate levels of aggrandizement (say 2%) are perfectly normal. A growing business should have pocket-sized pricing ability. Yet, the six.8% increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in November represented a 39-year high in the U.s..

When the price for appurtenances and services rises quickly, businesses and consumers usually aren't able to buy every bit much with their disposable income. Thus, loftier aggrandizement has a tendency to wearisome growth, and encourages the nation's central banking company (the Federal Reserve) to tighten its monetary policy, which I'll bear upon on next.

A printing press producing crisp one hundred dollar bills.

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3. A hawkish Fed

A third reason the stock market place could crash in 2022 is the Fed turning hawkish.

For much of the past thirteen years, the nation's central bank has promoted dovish monetary policy. In other words, it's kept lending rates at or near historic lows, and undertaken numerous quantitative easing (QE) initiatives designed to beacon confidence in the housing market and counterbalance down long-term Treasury bond yields.

Beginning in 2022, the Fed is going to wind down its QE program, and will likely raise rates by 25 footing points on a couple of occasions. As access to ultra-inexpensive capital becomes scarcer, the expectation is that overall economic growth volition slow. This is concerning because growth stocks have powered the Southward&P 500 higher since 2009.

4. Congressional stalemates

As a full general rule, it'south best to get out politics out of your portfolio. But every once in a while, what happens on Capitol Loma needs to exist closely monitored.

For example, Congress passed and President Joe Biden signed a stopgap funding neb during the first week of Dec to keep the federal regime and its multitude of agencies running. However, this nib only provides enough funding to go through Feb. 18.  America's two major political parties, Democrats and Republicans, have shown that they're ideologically miles apart, making information technology quite possible that another government shutdown looms this year.

A row of voting booths with partitions and attached voting pamphlets.

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v. Midterm elections

Once again, politics isn't ordinarily something investors take to worry almost. Still, midterm elections are set to occur in November, and the current political breakup in Congress could have tangible implications on businesses and the stock market moving forrad.

For the time beingness, Democrats have an extremely narrow majority in the Firm and Senate. Nevertheless, this didn't help President Biden's Build Back Better initiative pass. Democrats picking up seats in November could pave a path for Build Back Better to become law in 2023, as well as open the door to higher corporate tax rates. Meanwhile, Republicans picking up seats would well-nigh certainly kill any adventure of Biden's framework becoming law, and would also probable take college corporate revenue enhancement off the table.

6. Mainland china's tech crackdown tightens

For each of the by two years, Red china has been a headwind for Wall Street. The 2nd-largest economy in the earth by gdp entered into a trade war with the U.S. ii years agone. Meanwhile, concerns were raised last yr when regulators began cracking down on the nation'south biggest tech stocks.

While it's tough to say what 2022 volition have in store for the world's No. 2 economy, there's been no indication of regulators loosening their hold on Red china'southward leading innovators. Weakness in primal Mainland china stocks, as well as potentially negative impacts on innovation and supply bondage, threaten U.S. equities.

A hand reaching for a neat stack of one hundred dollar bills being used as bait in a mouse trap.

Image source: Getty Images.

7. A margin-induced meltdown

A seventh reason the stock market could crash in 2022 is due to speedily rising margin debt -- i.due east., the amount of money existence borrowed from brokerages/institutions with interest to buy or short-sell securities.

Over fourth dimension, it'due south not uncommon to meet the nominal amount of margin debt outstanding increase. However, a rapid increase in outstanding margin debt is ofttimes bad news. As of November 2021, about $919 billion in margin debt was outstanding.  That's nearly double the amount of margin debt during the pandemic low less than ii years agone.

Furthermore, we've only witnessed three instances since the kickoff of 1995 where margin debt rose by at least threescore% in a single year. Information technology occurred but months earlier the dot-com bubble burst, immediately before the financial crunch, and in 2021.

8. A crypto crash

Over the long run, the stock market place is a coin machine. But in contempo years, speculators have piled into the cryptocurrency market. Watching Bitcoin proceeds equally much equally 8,000,000,000% in a lilliputian over xi years, or meme coin Shiba Inu tack on a 46,000,000% gain in 12 months, has driven a level of FOMO (fear of missing out) never earlier seen.

Unfortunately, the crypto market has been unable to decouple from the stock market place and ascertain its own identity. What's more, a decent percentage of crypto investors are likewise putting some of their money to piece of work in stocks. A crypto crash in 2022 would likely weigh on stocks dependent on the cryptocurrency ecosystem, as well as reduce investment capital for equities.

A magnifying glass laid atop a financial newspaper, with the words, Market data, enlarged.

Epitome source: Getty Images.

nine. Value comes into focus

Valuation is yet another clear concern for the stock marketplace in 2022.

Entering the yr, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was at 40, which represents a two-decade loftier. The Shiller P/Eastward examines inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. This is well over double the average Shiller P/E for the S&P 500 of 16.9, dating dorsum more 150 years.

Even more than worrisome is what's happened to the S&P 500 each of the previous times the Shiller P/Eastward has surpassed thirty. In those previous four instances, the benchmark index went on to lose at to the lowest degree 20% of its value. With the Fed tightening its focus, a rotation to value and income stocks could spell trouble.

10. History repeats

Final but not least, history repeating itself could be the catalyst that leads to a stock market crash.

Since 1960, there accept been nine bear markets (i.e., declines of at least 20% in the South&P 500). Following each of the previous eight comport market bottoms, not including the coronavirus crash of 2020, the Southward&P 500 has undergone either 1 or ii corrections of at least ten% in the subsequent 36 months. This is to say that rebounding from a bear marketplace bottom is a bumpy process that doesn't upshot in a straight-line bounce.

We're now 22 months removed from the pandemic acquit market lesser, and take yet to see a double-digit percentage pullback in the South&P 500. History would suggest it'due south coming, and sooner rather than later.

This article represents the opinion of the author, who may disagree with the "official" recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium informational service. We're motley! Questioning an investing thesis -- fifty-fifty i of our own -- helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.